Epic Fury: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly, Day 1

Preface:  I haven’t blogged in over 14 months, but after putting to bed a couple of projects, I am back in the saddle.

At this juncture, 24 hours after bombing began, it’s pretty much over, except the hard part.  Who is going to run the place?  From Vietnam to Afghanistan to Iran, our track record of “regime change” isn’t very good.

But we are the world’s policeman, whether you like it or not.  And that is part of the “Good.”

GOOD

It is likely that Iran, as a sponsor of terrorism and killer of innocents, including over 30,000 of its own people, will be crippled militarily for a generation.  But it’s still dangerous.

Iran deserves its fate. I need not recount that theocracy’s atrocities of almost 50 years, but I do recall October 23, 1983, vividly.  Since that terrible day Iran and Lebanon were attached at the hip as hateful murderous regimes and are now, at the hands of Israel and with US resolve, effectively neutered.  Other Arab states supported the action with their military, which is fascinating on a whole other level.

Iran is paying the price of its evil intentions.  Desert sand will cover their memory and better civilizations will grow.

BAD

Although the US and Israel performed brilliantly and amazingly in secret, the effort was not in a vacuum.  The whole world knows, now, how.  The key player is China.  It has seen our attack prep, capability, and execution to a “T.”  Certainly the US military will shuffle it deck for a China threat, with no small contribution in intelligence from Israel and other allies, but the bad guys have confirmed in real time what US firepower can do. 

The world has mapped our strengths and noted our weaknesses.  That’s the trade-off but it is only Day 1… the world turns every 24 hours and no one can predict the future.

Oil has a lot to do with what happens over the next couple weeks.  China purchases over 50% of its energy from Iran at below market levels.  One-fifth of the Middle East oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.  China will not want to pay a premium, especially to the US for Venezuelan oil.

And there is historical precedent for escalation over energy needs.  Japan attacked the US at Pearl Harbor to destroy the US fleet, and to further strengthen its hold on control over the production and shipment of oil that the US was disrupting in both traffic and general commerce in the months before that attack.

UGLY

Rogue action cannot be predicted, especially if the terrorist is acting alone.  From suicide bombers to crazies driving POV’s into crowds to Bondi Beach, this insanity will always be with us.  I think it will intensify, even multiply.  Be ready for the small scale violence, and support the people behind the scenes getting ready, and preventing, the Big.  Know and believe that radical idealogues, antisemites, and sickos of the worst stripe will act out of frustration.

The World Cup, the USA’s 250^th, and the Olympics in ’28 are all target rich environments.  I pray for our intel community and LEO in general, for their forbearance, courage, and standing on that wall. We need to keep our individual and collective head on a swivel.

Don’t tolerate hate.  Don’t accept derangement.  Don’t acquiesce toward those who hide behind our Western values and the US generosity in word and spirit, in order to do wrong.

To be loyal to our nation we should love our neighbor.  Love and loyalty are synonymous.  The Iranian theocracy loved only death.  You may not agree with the action taken initially by Epic Fury, but you should acknowledge that a real monster has been taken off the face of the earth.  That is a good thing.

Peace. Out.